Baltic Troops Ready To Enter Ukraine

At the 2024 Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn, representatives from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia issued a stark warning: they are prepared to send troops into Ukraine to defend against Russian aggression, even without NATO’s approval. This bold stance reflects their deep-seated fears of becoming the next targets of Russian expansionism.

Key Takeaways

• Baltic nations are ready to act independently in Ukraine.
• Frustration with NATO and Germany’s military support.
• Historical context drives their urgency to defend Ukraine.
• Potential implications for NATO’s collective defense strategy.

The Baltic Announcement

In May 2024, Baltic representatives made their intentions clear at the Lennart Meri Conference. They expressed frustration with Germany’s reluctance to allow Ukraine to use German-supplied weapons against Russia. The Baltic states view this as a half-hearted response that could embolden Russia, allowing it to gain ground in Ukraine, particularly in the eastern region of Kharkiv. Such gains would pose a direct threat to the Baltics and Poland.

The Stakes for NATO

The Baltic states are NATO members, which means they are entitled to collective defense under Article 5 of the NATO charter. However, if they act unilaterally by sending troops into Ukraine, it raises questions about NATO’s response to any Russian retaliation. Would NATO consider this an act of aggression against the Baltics, or would they view it as a provocation?

Preparing for War

The Baltic nations are not just talking; they are taking steps to bolster their defenses. Recent reports indicate that:

• Estonia plans to construct 600 bunkers by 2025 and has doubled its territorial defense force to 20,000.
• Latvia aims to increase its armed forces to 61,000 by 2032 and has reintroduced mandatory military conscription.
• Lithuania has formed an agreement to station a permanent brigade of 4,800 soldiers on its border with Russia by 2027.

These preparations signal a serious commitment to national defense and readiness for potential conflict.

Historical Context

The urgency of the Baltic states is rooted in their historical experiences under Soviet rule. They share a collective memory of oppression and loss of sovereignty, which fuels their determination to prevent a repeat of history. The parallels between their past and Ukraine’s current struggle against Russian aggression are striking.

• Latvia: After gaining independence in 1918, Latvia was occupied by the Soviet Union in 1940, leading to mass deportations and loss of democracy.
• Estonia: Similarly, Estonia faced Soviet annexation in 1940, resulting in significant loss of life and freedom.
• Lithuania: Lithuania’s history mirrors that of its neighbors, having fought for independence only to be reoccupied by the Soviets.

The Russian Threat

Recent Russian threats have heightened the urgency for the Baltics. A draft decree proposing a redrawing of borders within the Baltic Sea was seen as a direct intimidation tactic. The Baltic states view this as a clear signal that they could be next on Russia’s agenda if Ukraine falls.

The Role of NATO

The Baltic states’ willingness to act independently raises critical questions for NATO. If they enter Ukraine, will NATO be compelled to respond? The Baltics hope that their actions will serve as a wake-up call for NATO, emphasizing the fragility of the buffer between Russia and Europe.

Military Contributions

While the Baltic nations may not have the military might of larger countries, they have been significant supporters of Ukraine. They rank among the top five nations in terms of military aid provided relative to their GDP. Their contributions include:

• Latvia: 1.5% of GDP in military aid.
• Estonia and Lithuania: Each providing 1.8% of GDP.

Conclusion

The Baltic states are prepared to take bold actions in the face of Russian aggression, driven by historical context and a desire for self-preservation. Their readiness to send troops into Ukraine, even without NATO’s backing, could force a critical decision for NATO and reshape the dynamics of the conflict. As tensions rise, the world watches closely to see how this situation unfolds. Will the Baltics’ actions compel NATO to act, or will they stand alone in their fight against a resurgent Russia?